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Article Dans Une Revue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Année : 2021

The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing

Bo Fu
Bengang Li
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Thomas Gasser
Shu Tao
Shilong Piao
Wei Li
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Tianya Yin
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Luchao Han
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Yunman Han
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Siyuan Peng
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Jing Xu
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Résumé

Knowing the historical relative contribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) to global radiative forcing (RF) at the regional level can help understand how future GHGs emission reductions and associated or independent reductions in SLCFs will affect the ultimate purpose of the Paris Agreement. In this study, we use a compact Earth system model to quantify the global RF and attribute global RF to individual countries and regions. As our evaluation, the United States, the first 15 European Union members, and China are the top three contributors, accounting for 21.9 ± 3.1%, 13.7 ± 1.6%, and 8.6 ± 7.0% of global RF in 2014, respectively. We also find a contrast between developed countries where GHGs dominate the RF and developing countries where SLCFs including aerosols and ozone are more dominant. In developing countries, negative RF caused by aerosols largely masks the positive RF from GHGs. As developing countries take measures to improve the air quality, their negative contributions from aerosols will likely be reduced in the future, which will in turn enhance global warming. This underlines the importance of reducing GHG emissions in parallel to avoid any detrimental consequences from air quality policies.
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Dates et versions

hal-03218434 , version 1 (23-10-2021)

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Bo Fu, Bengang Li, Thomas Gasser, Shu Tao, Philippe Ciais, et al.. The contributions of individual countries and regions to the global radiative forcing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2021, 118 (15), ⟨10.1073/pnas.2018211118⟩. ⟨hal-03218434⟩
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