A resilience model based on Stochastic Poison Process

M. Eid (1) , S. Serafin (1) , Yohan Barbarin (1) , E. Kuligowska (2) , J. Soszynska-Budny (2) , K. Kolowrocki (2)

1 CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire)
2 Department of Marine Electronics, Gdynia Maritime University

Critical Infrastructure (CI) Preparedness and Resilience modelling, simulation et analysis (MSetA) is a major issue in CI protection (CIP) and crisis management. This is due to the rapid growth of the inference of the smart complex systems in the modern society activities. The concept of resilience in CIP is not yet clearly defined.However, resilience is often used as a measure of the system good behaviour facing a given threat. Under a given threat, a CI may evolve within a set of welldefined operating phases. Subsequently, the failure of the CI to provide the expected service will depend not only on the threat nature but also on the operating phase.A tentative probabilistic model is proposed describing the robustness and the resilience of a well-defined infrastructure facing a given threat.

Mots clés: protection; modelling; simulation; resilience; critical infrastructure

Domaines: Physique Nucléaire Expérimentale [nucl-ex]; Physique Nucléaire Théorique [nucl-th]

M. Eid, S. Serafin, Yohan Barbarin, E. Kuligowska, J. Soszynska-Budny, et al.. A resilience model based on Stochastic Poison Process. Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association, 2015, 6 (3), pp.45-52. ⟨10.13140/RG.2.1.2418.3766⟩. ⟨cea-02509655⟩