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Towards a systematic approach to input uncertainty quantification methodology

Abstract : Taking into account uncertainties is a key step in nuclear applications to ensure that a system cannot move towards unsafe conditions. This topic has already been addressed by several OECD/NEA projects such as UMS or BEMUSE. It appeared that uncertainty analysis methods were mature enough for industrial practices but also that an important effort should be done on input uncertainty quantification. Following this recommendation, the PREMIUM project was a first attempt to tackle this problem by benchmarking several available methods. However, the dispersion of the results prevented from reaching a consensus between participants on estimated input uncertainties. This work is therefore devoted to some recent developments related to the construction of a systematic approach for input uncertainty quantification and validation. It provides an original insight which is not based on a benchmarking of methods and codes but integrates a shared analysis of the different generic steps that should be followed to reduce (or at least understand) the discrepancy in method and process. After recalling the main conclusions from the PREMIUM project that motivated the proposed work, we will introduce the five key elements of the systematic approach. The paper will then describe the scope, methods and expected outcome of the SAPIUM project that is devoted to the full description of this type of approach.
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  • HAL Id : cea-02437064, version 1

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J. Baccou, J. Zhang, E. Nouy. Towards a systematic approach to input uncertainty quantification methodology. 17th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermal Hydraulics (NURETH - 2017), Sep 2017, Xi'An, Shaanxi, China. ⟨cea-02437064⟩

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