https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-02428806Dundulis, G.G.DundulisLithuanian Energy InstituteZutautaite, I.I.ZutautaiteLithuanian Energy InstituteVytautas Magnus UnivJanulionis, R.R.JanulionisLithuanian Energy InstituteUpuras, E.E.UpurasLithuanian Energy InstituteRimkevicius, S.S.RimkeviciusLithuanian Energy InstituteEid, M.M.EidCEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternativesIntegrated failure probability estimation based on structural integrity analysis and failure data Natural gas pipeline caseHAL CCSD2016Fracture mechanic analysisDeterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysisFinite element methodBayesian methodFailure probabilityGas pipeline[PHYS.NEXP] Physics [physics]/Nuclear Experiment [nucl-ex][PHYS.NUCL] Physics [physics]/Nuclear Theory [nucl-th]amplexor, amplexor2020-01-06 11:33:562022-03-15 10:32:042020-01-06 11:33:56enJournal articles10.1016/j.ress.2016.08.0031In this paper, the authors present an approach as an overall framework for the estimation of the failure probability of pipelines based on: the results of the deterministic-probabilistic structural integrity analysis (taking into account loads, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, crack size, and defected zone thickness), the corrosion rate, the number of defects and failure data (involved into the model via application of Bayesian method). The proposed approach is applied to estimate the failure probability of a selected part of the Lithuanian natural gas transmission network. The presented approach for the estimation of integrated failure probability is a combination of several different analyses allowing us to obtain: the critical crack's length and depth, the failure probability of the defected zone thickness, dependency of the failure probability on the age of the natural gas transmission pipeline. A model's uncertainty analysis and uncertainty propagation analysis are performed, as well.