A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela (1, 2) , C. Morton (1) , L. Giglio (3) , Y. Chen (2) , G. van Der Werf (4) , S. Kasibhatla (5) , S. Defries (6) , G. Collatz (1) , S. Hantson (7) , S. Kloster (8) , D. Bachelet (9) , M. Forrest (10) , G. Lasslop (8) , F. Li (11) , S. Mangeon (12) , J. R. Melton (13) , C. Yue (14) , J. T. Randerson (2)

1 GSFC - NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
2 ESS - Department of Earth System Science [Irvine]
3 Department of Geographical Sciences
4 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
5 Division of Marine Science and Conservation, Nicholas School of the Environment
6 Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology
7 IMK-IFU - Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung
8 MPI-M - Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
9 Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering
10 SBiK-F - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
11 IAP - Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing]
12 Department of Physics [Imperial College London]
13 Climate Research Division [Toronto]
14 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.

Domains: Environmental Sciences

N. Andela, C. Morton, L. Giglio, Y. Chen, G. van Der Werf, et al.. A human-driven decline in global burned area. Science, 2017, 356 (6345), pp.1356 - 1362. ⟨10.1126/science.aal4108⟩. ⟨cea-01588364⟩