Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E. J. Rohling 1, 2 A. Sluijs 3 H. A. Dijkstra 4 P. Köhler 5 R. S. W. van de Wal 4 A. S. von der Heydt 4 D. J. Beerling 6 A. Berger 7 P. K. Bijl 3 M. Crucifix 7 R. Deconto 8 S. S. Drijfhout 9 A. Fedorov 10 G. L. Foster 1 A. Ganopolski 11 J. Hansen 12 B. Hönisch 13 H. Hooghiemstra 14 M. Huber 15 P. Huybers 16 R. Knutti 17 D. W. Lea 18 L. J. Lourens 3 D. Lunt 19 Valérie Masson-Delmotte 20 M. Medina-Elizalde 21 B. Otto-Bliesner 22 M. Pagani 10 H. Pälike 1 H. Renssen 23 D. L. Royer 24 M. Siddall 25 P. Valdes 19 J. C. Zachos 26 R. E. Zeebe 27
Abstract : Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
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E. J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S. W. van de Wal, et al.. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2012, 491 (7426), pp.683-691. ⟨10.1038/nature11574⟩. ⟨cea-00880704⟩

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