Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E. J. Rohling 1, 2 A. Sluijs 3 H. A. Dijkstra 4 P. Köhler 5 R. S. W. van de Wal 4 A. S. von Der Heydt 4 D. J. Beerling 6 A. Berger 7 P. K. Bijl 3 M. Crucifix 7 R. Deconto 8 S. S. Drijfhout 9 A. Fedorov 10 G. L. Foster 1 A. Ganopolski 11 J. Hansen 12 B. Hönisch 13 H. Hooghiemstra 14 M. Huber 15 P. Huybers 16 R. Knutti 17 D. W. Lea 18 L. J. Lourens 3 D. Lunt 19 Valérie Masson-Delmotte 20, 21 M. Medina-Elizalde 22 B. Otto-Bliesner 23 M. Pagani 10 H. Pälike 1 H. Renssen 24 D. L. Royer 25 M. Siddall 26 P. Valdes 19 J. C. Zachos 27 R. E. Zeebe 28 
1 University of Southampton
2 RSES - Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra]
3 Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht]
4 IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht]
5 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
6 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield]
7 TECLIM - Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain]
8 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
9 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
10 Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven]
11 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
12 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
13 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
14 IBED - Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
15 IUPUI - Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
16 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA]
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara)
19 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 GLACCIOS - Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables
LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] : DRF/LSCE
22 CICY - Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan
23 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
24 FALW - Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
25 Wesleyan University
26 UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol]
27 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz]
28 SOEST - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
Abstract : Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [104 references]  Display  Hide  Download
https://hal-cea.archives-ouvertes.fr/cea-00880704
Contributor : Bruno Savelli Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Monday, October 21, 2019 - 11:50:11 AM
Last modification on : Friday, May 6, 2022 - 2:54:40 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, January 22, 2020 - 2:08:53 PM

File

Vignette du document
Palao.pdf
Publication funded by an institution

Identifiers

Collections

CEA | INSU | CNRS | UVSQ | LSCE | LSCE-CEA | GS-GEOSCIENCES

Citation

E. J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S. W. van de Wal, et al.. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2012, 491 (7426), pp.683-691. ⟨10.1038/nature11574⟩. ⟨cea-00880704⟩

Export

BibTeX TEI DC DCterms EndNote Datacite

Share

Metrics

Record views

230

Files downloads

303