Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E. J. Rohling 1, 2 A. Sluijs 3 H. A. Dijkstra 4 P. Köhler 5 R. S. W. van de Wal 4 A. S. von der Heydt 4 D. J. Beerling 6 A. Berger 7 P. K. Bijl 3 M. Crucifix 7 R. Deconto 8 S. S. Drijfhout 9 A. Fedorov 10 G. L. Foster 1 A. Ganopolski 11 J. Hansen 12 B. Hönisch 13 H. Hooghiemstra 14 M. Huber 15 P. Huybers 16 R. Knutti 17 D. W. Lea 18 L. J. Lourens 3 D. Lunt 19 Valérie Masson-Delmotte 20 M. Medina-Elizalde 21 B. Otto-Bliesner 22 M. Pagani 10 H. Pälike 1 H. Renssen 23 D. L. Royer 24 M. Siddall 25 P. Valdes 19 J. C. Zachos 26 R. E. Zeebe 27
1 University of Southampton
2 RSES - Research School of Earth Sciences [Canberra]
3 Department of Earth Sciences - Geochemistry [Utrecht]
4 IMAU - Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht]
5 AWI - Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
6 Department of Animal and Plant Sciences [Sheffield]
7 TECLIM - Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain]
8 UMass Amherst - University of Massachusetts [Amherst]
9 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
10 Department of Geology and Geophysics [New Haven]
11 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
12 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
13 LDEO - Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
14 IBED - Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
15 IUPUI - Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis
16 EPS - Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA]
17 IAC - Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich]
18 Department of Earth Science [Santa Barbara)
19 School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol]
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan
22 NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder]
23 Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam]
24 Wesleyan University
25 UWE Bristol - University of the West of England [Bristol]
26 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Santa Cruz]
27 SOEST - School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
Abstract : Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in KW$^{−1}$ m$^2$) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$, which agrees with IPCC estimates
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E. J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H. A. Dijkstra, P. Köhler, R. S. W. van de Wal, et al.. Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity. Nature, Nature Publishing Group, 2012, 491 (7426), pp.683-691. ⟨10.1038/nature11574⟩. ⟨cea-00880704⟩

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